谷歌正被边缘化吗？

译者 scqq

The upcoming IPO of Facebook, the flak surrounding Twitter’s decision to censor some tweets, and Google’s weaker-than-expected 4th-quarter earnings all point to one of the big events of our times: The crazy, chaotic, idealistic days of the Internet are ending. Once, the Prairies were open and shared by everyone. Then the farmers arrived and fenced them in. The same is happening to the Internet: Apple, Amazon and Facebook are putting up fences — and Google is increasingly being left outside.

Facebook的IPO，Twitter饱受批评的言论审核新规，以及谷歌差强人意的第四季度财务收入，都传递着一个时代的大变革：疯狂，喧嚣而理想化的互联网王国正在结束。牧场一旦自由开放，农场主便开始圈地筑篱。互联网也与此类似：Apple，Amazon及Facebook都筑起了篱笆--谷歌却不幸地被逐渐边缘化。

The old Internet on which Google has thrived is still there, of course, but like the wilderness it is shrinking. Often these days, we sign up for Facebook or Amazon’s private version of the Internet. At other times, we use a smartphone and download an App instead of using Google search.

当然，Google耐以繁荣的老互联网模式依然存在，但正如荒原般在慢慢收缩。时至今日，我们都在签署Facebook或Amazon的网络保护协议，或者使用智能手机下载应用。

Investors are already placing their bets on who the winners of the new Internet will be: Over the past five years Amazon’s shares, despite their recent fall, have risen 370%. Apple’s are up 438%. Google’s, meanwhile, have merely risen by 17% in all that time. It is still the early days of this long-term trend, but my hunch is that this gap in performance will widen over the coming year — and that Google’s long slow decline has already begun.

投资人也在为互联网的下一个赢家下赌注：过去的5年，Amazon的份额上涨了370%，即便最近有所下滑。Apple上涨了438%。与此同时，Google仅仅上涨了17%。 现在仍处于这个长远变化趋势的开端，但我预感接下来这个差距会继续扩大--谷歌已走上了长期缓慢下滑的道路。

What makes Google’s predicament so serious is that it has little to do with technology and everything to do with business models. You can buy or copy technology, but changing a business model is about the hardest thing any company can do. Google’s business model, and nearly all its revenue and profits, depend on the Internet remaining open. When we search, Google pockets billions from advertising. If the old Internet is changing, Google’s original way of doing business loses value.

Google之困在于其与技术关联太少，而面面关乎商业模式。技术可以购买或模仿，但改变商业模式确是一个公司最难办到的。Google的商业模式，几乎所有的收入和利润都是来自现有的互联网。鼠标一点击，Goolge便从广告中将上亿美元纳入囊中。所以，一旦互联网发生变化，Google原有的商业模式便失去价值。

(MORE: Facebook is responsible for creating 450,000 Jobs, Really?!)

When Google reported its results two weeks ago, the first headlines focused on the 25% increase in fourth quarter revenues compared to last year. Investors, however, focused on the drop in the cost per click that Google is able to charge advertisers. The main reasons for the decline in this all-important metric is increased competition from Facebook, Amazon, and Apple.

Googel在两周前发布了年度总结时，与去年相，第四季度上涨25%便成了头条。然而，投资人却关注着每一次搜索，Google下滑的广告收费金额。下滑的主要原因即是来自Facebook，Amazon和Apple的竞争。

Start with Facebook, which has erected a cyber fence around its 800 million-plus users and refuses to share some important data with Google. This means that Google’s searches are not quite as valuable to advertisers as they used to be when the Internet was open and when Facebook was much smaller than it is today.

Facebook拉起了大战的序幕，他率先在其8亿多的用户周围建立了网络篱笆，并且拒绝与Google分享重要数据。这意味着，Google的搜索价值已不能与以往那个开放的互联网及弱小的Facebook时代同日而语。

Amazon is increasingly playing a similar trick — but with a twist. Amazon has taken Google’s freely available Android operating system and adapted it for its new Fire tablet. Amazon gets to free ride upon Google’s software, in other words, while the search giant gets nothing back in return. No data, and no advertising revenue.

Amazon狡黠地一步步玩弄着类似的小把戏。一开始，免费使用安卓操作系统，其后将其发展到自己新的平板电脑上。Amazon免费使用了Google的软件，而这个搜索巨人却没有得到任何回报。没有数据，没有广告收益。

Apple’s land grab, meanwhile, may be the most definitive. The Apple universe is like a cable TV network that owns content or aggregates it. It’s phones, computers and tablets are like the set-top boxes your cable company gives you. The content you consume might be a film that you download, a song, a book, an application or something you buy on line, like a pair of shoes. And none of the data Apple’s customers generate is available to Google. (Amazon basically has the same arrangement going with its Kindle and Fire. The only thing it doesn’t own is the network, but it doesn’t matter: Once you log into Amazon with a password, you’ve left Google’s open Internet.)

Apple的土地攻占也许是其中最具有代表性的。 Apple世界，就像一个拥有或汇聚了很多节目的有线电视网。它的电话，电脑和平板电脑则像有线网络供应商为您提供的机顶盒。您的消费可能是下载的一部电影，在线购买的一首歌，一本书，一个应用等。这就像是一双鞋子，缺一不可。而Google却无法得到Apple这些客户所生成的数据。（Amazon的Kindle和Fire系列产品也将会采取类似的操作。它唯一不能控制的就是网络，但这也是无关紧要：一旦你使用自己的账户登陆了Amazon，你便远离Google的开放网络。）

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The danger to Google, in other words, is that as social networking, smartphones and tablets increasingly come to dominate the Internet, Google’s chance to earn advertising revenues from searching will shrink along with its influence.

Google之危，换而言之，在于社交网络，智能机和平板电脑逐渐主宰因特网，Google从搜索引擎所得到的广告收益及影响力逐步缩小。

Yes, Google has the Android and Google+, but these may not be enough to fight the shift to the closed Internet. Google+, of course, has just a tiny fraction of Facebook’s scale and there’s currently little reason to think it can catch up. The Android operating system, also an attempt by Google to build its own internet eco-system, is a more conspicuous success. Most commentators focus on the rapid growth of Android and the fact that it has greater market share than the iPhone.

即便Google拥有安卓和Google+，但都无力抵抗网络封闭化的趋向。与Facebook相比，Google+ 微不足道，目前也无法想象它能后来居上。安卓操作系统，是Goole构建自我网络生态体系的一次尝试，相比而言，更为成功。许多评论家注意到了它的快速增长，及其大于iPhone的市场份额。

But this analysis misses the point: The Android may have market share, but more than half of mobile searches come from iPhone users. Google may have developed Android but, unlike Apple’s iPhone, it does not really control it. Licensees like Samsung and HTC are able to adapt Android software to their own ends. And smart companies like Amazon are getting a free ride on Android while sharing little of the spoils with Google.

然而，这种分析却漏掉了一点：安卓是占有市场份额，但超过一半的手机搜索却来自iPhone的用户。Goole开发了安卓，但是不像Apple的iPhone， 它不能真正地控制它。Samsung和HTC持照人都可将Android应用到他们自己的产品终端上。而那些聪明的公司，如Amazon免费使用了安卓，却不愿与Goole分羹。

Don’t get me wrong: Google is still a force, just as Microsoft, Intel and IBM are. But they are no longer at the epicentre of the zeitgeist. Like Microsoft before it, Google can fight the good fight on many different fronts. Whether it can ever find an engine of growth capable of supplanting its core business is another question.

别曲解了我的含义：Goole仍如Microsoft, Intel 和 IBM一样鼎足轻重。但他们已不处于时代的中心。如之前的Microsoft，Google可以在不同的前沿阵地上打几个漂亮仗。但它能否找到一个发展引擎来取代核心业务则是另一个问题。

Read more: http://business.time.com/2012/02/01/are-we-seeing-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-google/#ixzz1lD4QOYuI